STOCK RECOMMENDATION ~ GEMSTV

BACKGROUND

GemsTV Holdings Limited (“GemsTV”) specializes in manufacturing genuine colored gemstone jewelry in exclusive handcrafted designs which are sold directly to customers through a "reverse auction'' system via television home shopping and the Internet. GemsTV eliminates the need for multiple intermediaries by vertically integrating the traditional gemstone and jewelry supply chain.

IPO price : $1.08
No. of Shares: 1,030,468 m
NAV: SGD $0.228
Current Price: SGD $0.275

Will weak consumer spending in US affect the sales revenue of GemsTV? The thing that I like about GemsTV is this company has a debt free balance sheet and strong net cash.

Technical analysis

Let's have a look on high volume when the price surged up indicated by a white candle from the chart above. On 5th Dec 2007, the price went up from $0.44 to $0.55 with such a high volume of 87.7 m. Later on, the price consolidated for more than a month to $0.25 with a low volume. And then on 24th Jan 2008, we can see quite good volume (7.13 m) noted. Is it a good sign? Is it a good time for you to enter?

Let's see on the trend line. It's obviously a downtrend line. We need to break this line before the stock can reverse its direction. Looking at the chart, it seems that we need to break at $0.310 with a high volume.

RSI and stochastic indicators are showing sign of reversal within the oversold region. :)

RECOMMENDATION

If you are a value investor, I believe now is a good time for you to accumulate the stock. The price is very cheap ($0.275) considering the company has NAV $0.228 and strong net cash.
If you are a trader, we need to see the stock break at $0.310 with a high volume. Once this point broken, we can set a target price at $0.415. WOw more than 50% upside from the current price.

Steady Bull recommends to BUY this stock at $0.275 with a target price $0.415 as downside risk is limited to NAV at $0.228.

Huat arh!!!!!!!!!!!!!! HAPPY CNY 2008

CHANGe YOuR LIFE

Discover the 90/10 Principle. It will change your life (at least the way u react to situations)

What is this principle? 10% of life is made up of what happens to you. 90% of life is decided by how you react.

What does this mean? We really have no control over 10% of what happens to us. We cannot stop the car from breaking down. The plane being late in arriving, which throws our whole schedule off. A driver may cut us off in traffic. We have no control over this 10%. The other 90% is different. You determine the other 90%.

How? By your REACTION. You cannot control a red light, but you can control your reaction. Don't let people fool you; YOU can control how you react.

Let's use an example. You are eating breakfast with your family. Your daughter knocks over a cup of coffee onto your business shirt. You have no control over what just happened. What happens next will be determined by how you react. You curse. You harshly scold your daughter for knocking the cup over. She breaks down in tears. After scolding her, you turn to your spouse and criticize her for placing the cup too close to the edge of the table. A short verbal battle follows. You storm upstairs and change your shirt. Back downstairs, you find your daughter has been too busy crying to finish breakfast and get ready for school. She misses the bus. Your spouse must leave immediately for work. You rush to the car and drive your daughter to school. Because you are late, you drive 40 miles an hour in a 30 mph speed limit. After a 15-minute delay and throwing $60 (traffic fine) away, you arrive at school. Your daughter runs into the building without saying goodbye. After arriving at the office 20 minutes late, Because of how you reacted in the morning.

Why did you have a bad day?
A) Did the coffee cause it?
B) Did your daughter cause it?
C) Did the policeman cause it?
D) Did you cause it?

The answer is D.

You had no control over what happened with the coffee. How you reacted in those 5 seconds is what caused your bad day. Here is what could have and should have happened. Coffee splashes over you. Your daughter is about to cry. You gently say, "It's ok honey, you just need to be more careful next time". Grabbing a towel you rush upstairs. After grabbing a new shirt and your briefcase, you come back down in time to look through the window and see your child getting on the bus. She turns and waves. You and your spouse kiss before you go to work. You arrive 5 minutes early and cheerfully greet the staff. Your boss comments on how good the day you are having.

Notice the difference? Two different scenarios. Both started the same. Both ended different. Why? Because of how you REACTED. You really do not have any control over 10% of what happens. The other 90% was determined by your reaction. Here are some ways to apply the 90/10 principle. If someone says something negative about you, don't be a sponge.

Let the attack roll off like water on glass. You don't have to let the negative comment affect you! React properly and it will not ruin your day. A wrong reaction could result in losing a friend, being fired, getting stressed out etc.

How do you react if someone cuts you off in traffic?
Do you lose your temper? Pound on the steering wheel?
Does your blood pressure rocket?
Do you try and bump them? WHO CARES if you arrive ten seconds later at work?
Why let the cars ruin your drive?

Remember the 90/10 principle, and do not worry about it. You are told you lost your job. Why lose sleep and get irritated? It will work out. Use your worrying energy and time into finding another job. The plane is late; it is going to mangle your schedule for the day. Why take out your frustration on the flight attendant? She has no control over what is going on. Use your time to study, get to know the other passengers. Why get stressed out? It will just make things worse.

Now you know the 90-10 principle. Apply it and you will be amazed at the results. You will lose nothing if you try it. The 90-10 principle is incredible. Very few know and apply this principle. The result? Millions of people are suffering from undeserved stress, trials, problems and heartaches. There never seem to be a success in life. Bad days follow bad days. Terrible things seem to be constantly happening. There is constant stress, lack of joy, and broken relationships. Worry consumes time. Anger breaks friendships and life seems dreary and is not enjoyed to the fullest. Friends are lost. Life is a bore and often seems cruel.

Does this describe you? If so, do not be discouraged. You can be different! Understand and apply the 90/10 principle. It will change your life.

WHaT iS THe MOSt iMPOrTaNT thING? :)

Whatever you do, what counts are EXPERIENCE AND SKILLS and how to combine the two.

LEARN AND NEVER GIVE UP!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

STOCK RECOMMENDATION ~ GEMSTV

GEMSTV (Current Price $0.305)

I will give you a detail analysis tonight. We expect to see a nice rally for this. Technically, it looks pretty good. We just need more volume to break the downtrend. :)

Don't forget some of the brokers give a high target price for Gemstv. We might see $0.415 anytime soon. Huat arh!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

JObLeSS ClaIMS RISe SHARPLY, DOw TONiTE???

Future for DOW is pointing a lower open (Dow future now -134)as sentiment was badly hurt by a sharp rise in jobless claims from 69,000 to 375,000. As a contrary, jobless rate for Q4 in Singapore fell to 1.6%. It seems very hard for US to avoid recession even though FED has tried their best to cut the rate sharply by 1.25%. What else can US do to avoid another turmoil in the market???? Corporate tax rate??? Let's think about it. :)

FED SLaShED ITs kEy INtEREST RaTEs AgAIN BY 0.50%

As expected, FED cut its rates again ~ FED funds rate to 3% and Discount rate to 3.5%. Stock rallied as soon as FED announced they cut its rates but the rally was short lived.

WHY WHY WHY WHY WHY???? Is it because wall streets has rallied for the past 2 days and price already factor in the rate cuts? Or maybe jobless rate (will be announced on Friday)will give us a hint that recession is on sight????

Let see what will happen to ASIAN market today. Do you think market will cheer the rate cut?? It's interesting to see. Will ASIAN market go upwards even though the closing for DOW was negative (-37.47)???

In my opinion, we will see some relieve rally today. HUAT ARH!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

LEARNING CORNER ~ INDEX WARRANT ~ HSI

Do you all know about warrants? I believe most of us have heard about warrant. Some of you might say that warrant is very risky, better for you to stay away before u get burnt. Do you agree? Yes, if you don't understand how it works and know the rules of the game.

Anyway, let's learn together here. It is easier for us to learn from example rather than description, right? We take Hang Seng index as an example.

HSI close up 238.19 at 24,291.80

HSI24800 MBL CW 080228 ($0.595)
HSI27600 MBL CW 080228 ($0.240)

HSI25000 MBL PW 080228 ($0.800)
HSI24000 SGA PW 080328 ($0.525)

I will do a simulation trading by using the above warrants and along the way we can discuss what will affect the warrants movement and how we can utilize warrants to optimize our profit.

CHEERS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

UNDERSTAND, LOVE AND ENJOY THE JOURNEY.

ChIneSe MiND!!!

A Chinese walks into a bank in New York City and asks for the loan officer. He tells the loan officer that he is going to Taiwan on business for two weeks and needs to borrow $5,000.

The bank officer tells him that the bank will need some form of security for the loan, so the Chinese hands over the keys to a new Ferrari parked on the street in front of the bank. He produces the title and everything checks out. The loan officer agrees to accept the car as collateral for the loan. The bank's president and it's officers all enjoy a good laugh at the Chinese for using a $250,000 Ferrari as collateral against a $5,000 loan.

An employee of the bank then drives the Ferrari into the bank's underground garage and parks it there. Two weeks later, the Chinese returns, repays the $5,000 and the interest, which comes to $15.41. The loan officer says, "Sir, we are very happy to have had your business, and this transaction has worked out very nicely, but we are a little puzzled.

While you were away, we checked you out and found that you are a multi-millionaire. What puzzles us is, why would you bother to borrow $5,000?" The Chinese replies: "Where else in New York City can I park my car for two weeks for only $15.41 and expect it to be there when I return?"

US MARKeT DIRECtION

The main focus for the week will be the FED decision tomorrow. Nobody could predict what will be the outcome for the FED rate decision. Shall we bet on the rate cut tomorrow? However, I believe whatever the outcome is, it will not really determine the market direction.

What is the thing that investor's don't like most? Uncertainty, it makes all investors to stay aside and wait until the direction clear.

The BIG question for now is whether US economy can avoid a recession. Initial estimate of 4Q GDP (Wednesday) and jobless rate report (Friday) will provide us a hint to this question.

Let see how Dow performs tonight. HUAT ARH!!!!!!!!!!

FrEsH FiSH

The Japanese have always loved fresh fish. But the waters close to Japan have not held many fish for decades. So to feed the Japanese population, fishing boats got bigger and went further than ever. The further the fishermen went, the longer it took to bring in the fish.

If the return trip took more than a few days, the fish were not fresh. The Japanese did not like the taste. To solve this problem, fishing companies installed freezers on their boats. They would catch the fish and freeze them at sea. Freezers allowed the boats to go farther and stay longer.
However, the Japanese could taste the difference between fresh and frozen and they did not like frozen fish. The frozen fish brought a lower price. So fishing companies installed fish tanks.

They would catch the fish and stuff them in the tanks. After a little thrashing around, the fish stopped moving. They were tired and dull, but alive. Unfortunately, the Japanese could still taste the difference. Because the fish did not move for days, they lost their fresh-fish taste. The Japanese preferred the lively taste of fresh fish, not sluggish fish.

So how did Japanese fishing companies solve this problem? How do they get fresh-tasting fish to Japan? If you were consulting the fish industry, what would you recommend? As soon as you reach your goals, such as finding a wonderful mate, starting a successful company, paying off your debts or whatever, you might lose your passion. You don't need to work so hard so you relax.You experience the same problem as lottery winners who waste their money, wealthy heirs who never grow up and bored homemakers who get addicted to prescription drugs.

Like the Japanese fish problem, the best solution is simple. It was observed by L. Ron Hubbard in the early 1950's. "Man thrives, oddly enough, only in the presence of a challenging environment."- L. Ron Hubbard

The Benefits of a Challenge: The more intelligent, persistent and competent you are, the more you enjoy a good problem. If your challenges are the correct size, and if you are steadily conquering those challenges, you are happy. You think of your challenges and get energized. You are excited to try new solutions. You have fun. You are alive!

How Japanese Fish Stay Fresh: To keep the fish tasting fresh, the Japanese fishing companies still put the fish in the tanks. But now they add a small shark to each tank.The shark eats a few fish, but most of the fish arrive in a very lively state. The fish are challenged.

Recommendations: Instead of avoiding challenges, jump into them. Beat the heck out of them. Enjoy the game. If your challenges are too large or too numerous, do not give up. Failing makes you tired. Instead, reorganize. Find more determination, more knowledge, more help.

If you have met your goals, set some bigger goals. Once you meet your personal or family needs, move onto goals for your group, the society, even mankind. Don't create success and lie in it. You have resources, skills and abilities to make a difference."

So, put a shark in your tank and see how far you can really go!

US KEY ECONOMIC DATA DUE THIS WEEK

Monday, 28 Jan 2008
- December New home sales*
- Mr. Bush will deliver his state of the union address **

Tuesday, 29 Jan 2008
-FED meeting (29-30 Jan 2008) ***
-Durable good orders
-Consumer confidence

Wednesday, 30 Jan 2008
-FED meeting***
-Initial estimate of 4q GDP ***

Thursday, 31 Jan 2008
-Consumer spending

Friday, 1 Feb 2008
-Jobless rate****
-Non farm payrolls
-ISM report for January

STOCK RECOMMENDATION

SINOTEL TECHNOLOGIES LTD. (current price SGD 26.5 cents)

BACKGROUND

Sinotel is a wireless connectivity innovator company that provides a range of customised wireless telecommunication applications and solutions in China. Its main businesses are:
wireless network solutions, distribution solutions and mobile entertainment enabling solutions

MAJOR CUSTOMERS

China Unicom, China Mobile and China Netcom

KEY FINANCIAL DATA

Net profit ~ RMB 65.5 million (9m FY2007), surges 93.5% compared to 9m FY2006. It even exceeds full year 2006 profit (RMB 56.1 million).Overall gross profit margin ~ increased to 46.4% (was 37.3%)

EPS for 9m 2007 ~ RMB 23.7 cents (SGD .048). The EPS for 3rd quarter 2007 was RMB 9.7 cents. Assuming for the 4q of 2007, Sinotel can perform as good as last quarter 2006, which means the EPS for 4q2007 will be RMB 7.9 cents, the total EPS for 2007 will be RMB 31.6 cents (SGD . 064).

P/E for 9m 2007 ~ merely 5.5 x . Looking at the assumption above, FY2007 P/E will be just 4.1x.

Total post invitation shares ~ 280 million

Price ~ SGD 26.5 cents

IPO Price ~ SGD 51.0 cents (12 Nov 2007)

Results announcement for 3q2007 ~ 12 Dec 2007

52 Weeks price range ~ SGD . 210 (22 Jan 2008) - SGD.755 (14 Nov 2007)

Looking at the high growth of telecommunication industry in China, I believe Sinotel's business will enjoy the ride on China's booming mobile telecommunication industry even though there is still a risk that it might be affected by the slowing US economy.

We need to note that the launch of 3G networks (might be before olympic games) in China will create a new opportunities for SINOTEL as the telcom providers need to invest in the relevant 3G telecommunication networks, infrastructure and related services.

Last but not least, don't forget the coming olympic games 2008. Do you think Beijing want to lose their face when tourists visiting during the games will not be able to use their 3G handset? I don't think so!!!!

Fundamentally, SINOTEL's valuation is very attractive with a low P/E in such a high growth telecommunication industry in China. There is no way for me to do a technical analysis on SINOTEL at the moment as the price keep dropping since it was listed on 12 November 2007. There was no significant selling volume noted when the price dropped from SGD .42 to the lowest SGD .21.

STEADY BULL'S RECOMMENDATION: BUY WITH TP SGD .52 (FY2007 P/E 8X) ~ 96% UPSIDE POTENTIAL FROM THE CURRENT PRICE …HUAT ARH!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

BUtTeRfLY ~ MOTIVATIONAL STORY

A man found a cocoon of a butterfly. One day a small opening appeared. He sat and watched the butterfly for several hours as it struggled to force its body through that little hole. Then it seemed to stop making any progress. It appeared as if it had gotten as far as it could, and it could go no further.

So the man decided to help the butterfly. He took a pair of scissors and snipped off the remaining bit of the cocoon. The butterfly then emerged easily. But it had a swollen body and small, shriveled wings. The man continued to watch the butterfly because he expected that, at any moment, the wings would enlarge and expand to be able to support the body, which would contract in time.

Neither happened! In fact, the butterfly spent the rest of its life crawling around with a swollen body and shriveled wings. It never was able to fly. What the man, in his kindness and haste, did not understand was that the restricting cocoon and the struggle required for the butterfly to get through the tiny opening were God's way of forcing fluid from the body of the butterfly into its wings so that it would be ready for flight once it achieved its freedom from the cocoon.

Sometimes STRUGGLES are exactly what we need in our lives. If God allowed us to go through our lives without any obstacles, it would cripple us. We would not be as strong as what we could have been. We could never fly!

STI HISTORICAL CHART AFTER FED CUT DISCOUNT RATES

What can we learn from history? :)

STI, HSI,NIKKEI RALLy aS eXPeCTeD; CaN US aVOID reCESSION?

As discussed in my earlier post, Asian market will rally after Mr. Ben cut rates .75%. The rally was extended until end of the week and it made FTSE ST index rose to 3159.59. However, there are many analysts said that the decision to cut rate has come a bit late. Remember "Better Late than Never". $150 billion stimulus package is also on the way and hopefully it can boost consumer confidence.

After two day rally, Dow dropped 171.44 pts on Friday as Investors locked in profit. The two day FED meeting (29-30 January 2008) will be the focus for next week. I believe people hope FED will cut rate by another 25 basis point. Will FED do it again to please investor? I don't think this is important as long as FED can assure that US can avoid recession, that would be sufficient. :)

I love the idea that Bush may call for more measures to ease credit crunch and cut corporate tax rates. They need to boost the slowing economy in order to avoid recession.

FTSE ST INDEX NExT WeEk???

We can expect the index will open lower due to US market dropped on Friday and slowly but sure I believe market will rebound and possible to close higher. As mentioned earlier, the main focus for next week is 2 day FED meeting. Therefore, a range trading for FTSE ST index (3,000-3,200) is expected. It's very VOLATILE, right???? :)

I will also post STEADYBULLL stocks recommendation with detail analysis soon.

HUAT ARH!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!